March 25, 2008

Yalta – Malta – Neptun

Remember the last will and testament of Peter the Great?

I was not able to find, until now, a reliable source reproducing the real contents of the document and, moreover, I saw comments that the Web available version is an apocryph.
Still to be seen.

If it is true - and I don't mean the contents as much as the principles behind it - was the Neptun meeting between Russians and Americans, as part of the NATO summit in Romania, a new stage of the Yalta - Malta series?
Could be.
Mainly from the point of view of the expansion trend of the North-Atlantic alliance and of the European Union.

Maybe Russians didn't want to break the status quo and would rather silently insert themselves as did before. But facts happened this way: NATO brings missiles near the Russians' fence and the EU unselfishly desires to civilise the whole Europe. Both of them came closer both to Moldavia and Ukraine, falsesly giving hopes to ordinary citizens.

Russia has little to negotiate with the European Union. Stopping gas deliveries would be enough.
They can't do this to the Americans yet. Americans are also part of a military alliance which includes most of Europe and are Russia's number one traditional enemy.

The US recognized the independence of Kosovo. Within an area literally engulfed in American influence and presence. This opened a precedent for similar regions such as Abkhazia, Osetia, Transnistria to dare, protected as they are by their traditional "master" Russia.

This opens the way for Russia to again mark territories and officialy draw a line on the Dnestr. Leaving Moldavia with no sea access and widening the Russian Black Sea shore.
Last will and testament of Peter the Great
Realitatea TV on the above
Romania libera on the same
BBC, on NATO expansion

UPDATE: It was not in Neptun but in Sochi. Fault-finders might argue we uselessly hoped such a meeting of similar importance with the previous ones might happen in our country. It is somehow true, taking into account that Putin was trying (and tried, see his attitude towards everything that the NATO summit represented) to leave a mark and state his will as probably one of his last desires as president of Russia.


It is also obvious that, as the meeting took part at Putin's, its outcome was predictable - NATO did not move to the right, got what was left to be gotten in Europe (even Albania can be part of NATO...) and the missile protection shield stays where it is.


As for unofficial results, they might be discovered by our children, some time in the far future.

February 20, 2008

The sun always rises from the East

What I noticed today:

1. Gaz de France gives up the Nabucco project
2. LukOil cuts off crude oil deliveries to Germany
3. Last, but not least, the situation in Kosovo...


For those of you who do not know, Nabucco is supposed to transport natural gas from Turkey to Austria via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. To pump said gas into the pipeline, the project harvests it from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Egypt and Syria and connects within Turkey to the Tabriz - Erzurum pipeline and to the Baku - Tbilisi - Erzurum pipeline. At the delivery point in Austria it delivers the gas to what it is supposed to be the European central deposit in Baumgarten. This deposit aims to be a buffer against the Russians' energy blackmail activities such as the last winter ones and such as any other possible ones if Ukraine does not pay the price Russia demands. [Later Edit, February 21: but here we are heading to this... it's good that summer comes, though] Until the project becomes operational (supposedly in 2012) we will for sure be depending on Russian energy resources.

This idea has interesting side effects between the EU an the US. Let us remind you here that Turkey reached the status of an aeternal EU candidate country while it is a NATO member country and a US supporter. Whish United States are slowly starting to dig for resources - brave Chaves cut down the pipes towards America. His action led to an increase in crude oil prices to an average US$100 per barrel.